Weekly Wire | Impact of the Upcoming Election and Recent Crypto Trends
Market Summary
Last week, BTC activity got interesting as we nearly broke the all-time highs! On Tuesday, BTC/USD soared to $73.5k before retreating towards the end of the week. A bleak Non-Farm Payroll report (details below) triggered a brief risk-on rally on Friday. However, a breakout seemed highly unlikely given the looming risk of Tuesday’s US election. Bitcoin ETF flows recorded over $2.2 billion in inflows for the week ending November 1st.
Today’s market moves are likely to be positioning adjustments ahead of the election, with fund managers getting ready to react to unfolding results. As we approach election day, treasury yields continue to push higher, stock markets face downward pressure, gold maintains its positive trend, and the dollar index holds onto recent gains.
The Fed also meets on Thursday to decide on interest rate policy. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market anticipates a 25bps cut followed by another 25 bps at the December meeting. Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report showed only 12k jobs were added in October, far below the 113k forecast and 223k added the previous month. This marks the lowest jobs growth since December 2020, when 243k jobs were lost. Overall, the labor market data gives the Fed little incentive to change course on the cutting cycle.
Crypto in Charts
Notable Crypto News
Coinbase shares dropped 15% after a weaker than expected third quarter earnings report. Net income came in at $75 million, below the $112.2 million expected by analysts. The company also announced a $1 billion share buyback program, where the timing and amount of repurchases will depend on market conditions.
MicroStrategy announced Q3 2024 results and a $42 billion bitcoin investment plan last week. The company plans to raise $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities to purchase more bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset and boost the firm’s BTC yield.
Paxos launched Global Dollar (USDG), a USD backed stablecoin compliant with MAS’ upcoming stablecoin framework. USDG will be regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is currently available on the Ethereum blockchain, with plans to be issued on other chains soon.
Solana saw its highest monthly active addresses, surpassing 120 million in October | The Block
Bitcoin price falls, forward volatility jumps as traders brace for election: Analyst | The Block
The Macro Week Ahead
This week, several central banks, including the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, are scheduled to meet. However, the spotlight will undoubtedly be on the US Presidential Election.
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